I’ll Scratch Your Back…
This week, former secretary of State James Baker is scheduled to fly to Europe to beseech Russia, Germany and France to forgive Iraq’s crushing $120 billion debt. His task is made all the more difficult by a statement, written by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, announcing that any country which failed to support the war on Iraq would not be allowed to bid on some $20 billion in contracts to rebuild the country. Before Baker even stepped on the plane, the countries cut off were angrily refusing to bail out Iraq.
U.S. President George W. Bush was reported to be miffed by the inopportune Pentagon pronouncement. A senior administration official blamed the foul-up on “munchkins,” i.e., lower-level officials who had innocently blundered. But it was another in a series of miscommunications between the Defense Department and the White House.
The day after the Pentagon announced its punitive policy, a knowledgeable source told NEWSWEEK, top officials from State, Defense and other agencies agreed to not talk publicly about the policy in order to avoid further antagonizing erstwhile American allies. But the very next day Bush defiantly endorsed the ban. At a photo op after a cabinet meeting, a reporter asked Bush if such punitive steps squared with international law. “International law?” Bush answered, with an edge of sarcasm. “I better call my lawyer. He didn’t bring that up to me.”
The divisions over Iraq policy may run deeper. In Baghdad, L. Paul Bremer, the American proconsul, has secretly lobbied for more troops, according to Sen. John McCain (an advocate for increasing troop levels). Not so, insists a top aide to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld–who has consistently opposed sending more soldiers. At the White House, Robert Blackwill–a new senior national-security staffer brought in to shape political policy in Iraq–has been privately critical of Bremer’s performance. According to diplomatic sources, White House officials were irked with Bremer for failing to line up the backing of leading Shiite clerics for the planned transfer of power to an Iraqi government.
Baker may be able to unruffle some feathers. European firms haven’t been completely shut out of the reconstruction: Siemens has a $95 million job supplying a power plant with a new gas turbine, and the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce says that about 90 percent of a major contract given to U.S. firm Bechtel in May has been outsourced to subcontractors, many of them European. Nevertheless, the European Commission declared it would carefully examine all 26 contracts at stake in preparation for a possible WTO appeal on the U.S. decision. The White House may soon have its hands full with more than the Pentagon.
Afghanistan
A Crucial Council
How much power should a president wield? That’s the big question for this week’s Loya Jirga, or Grand Council, in Afghanistan. Despite threats of terror and a delayed start, some 500 delegates from across the country have gathered in Kabul to approve a new constitution that calls for a governing system dominated by a powerful president directly elected by the people. Unsurprisingly, the burden has fallen on current President Hamid Karzai to make the case for a strong executive branch. After all, his government drew up the draft constitution, which also calls for the country to unite under the banner of Islam, and the draft’s approval would clear the way for the first democratic elections in Afghanistan’s history next June.
It’s not going to be an easy sell for Karzai. Many delegates are expected to demand a stronger Parliament to offset executive power, fearing a president turned despot. Karzai dropped the post of prime minister from the governing framework, and many want it back. But Karzai isn’t bowing to the pressure. “A presidential form –of government is best suited for Afghanistan at this stage when the country lacks institutions,” Karzai told NEWSWEEK. “The Constitution should be straight and focused to one power center.”
Experts agree that an even more fundamental question is at stake: what role Islamic law should play in Afghanistan’s future. Several parties argue that the draft is not Islamic enough and that laws should be strictly in line with the Qur’an. At the same time, pro-Western liberals blame Karzai for allowing concessions to Islamic law–granting control of the education system to fundamentalists, for instance–which may impinge on democratic rights.
Karzai is in a tough spot. With parts of the country slipping into the wrong hands, opium production back on the rise and a very evident lack of institutions, the prospect of an upcoming vote is a rare source of optimism for the Afghan people. Despite the odds being stacked against him, it’s now up to Karzai to win over the Loya Jirga–and ensure the elections take place.
Israel
Inspired by the Past, Fearful of the Future
Only a long-odds gambler would bet on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s dismantling Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip any time soon. But Sharon’s deputy and key confidant believes that’s just what the P.M. is gearing up to do. Ehud Olmert, a political hawk in his own right, told NEWSWEEK last Thursday that he believes Sharon will begin evacuating some isolated settlements unilaterally “in a matter of months” if no breakthrough is made in talks with the Palestinians. Olmert and a growing number of other right-wingers who once supported settlement expansion are now worried their dream of Greater Israel will turn the Jewish state into an apartheid-era South Africa. Palestinians make up 40 percent of the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, and could constitute a majority within a decade. In a startling interview with a local paper last week, Olmert outlined his plan to pull out of much of the West Bank and evacuate a substantial number of settlements. Olmert denies the remarks were a trial balloon for Sharon’s own program but insists he’s in step with his boss. Palestinians believe any plan of Sharon’s will leave them fenced off in a truncated state. Israeli doves, who have long warned that creeping demographics make occupation of the West Bank and Gaza untenable, doubt Sharon will take on the settlers. “Certainly there will be violence,” Olmert said about any evacuation. “It will be a civil confrontation of the largest proportions in the history of the state of Israel.” That, you can bet on.
Serbia
From Bad To Worse
The wonderful thing about democracy is choice. But the tragic thing about choice is that there isn’t always a good list to choose from. On Dec. 28 Serbia will learn just that, when it holds its second democratic parliamentary elections since Slobodan Milosevic was toppled on Oct. 5, 2000. Despite being on trial in The Hague on 66 counts of war crimes, Slobo is set to be elected an M.P. Worse still, joining him will be three other alleged war criminals: ultranationalist Vojislav Seselj, former Yugoslav Army chief of staff Gen. Nebojsa Pavkovic and, as of last week, Gen. Sreten Lukic. Thanks to Serbian law, which bans only convicted, imprisoned criminals from contesting elections, this ballot is rapidly looking like a Most Wanted list.
Amazingly, the alternative candidates aren’t all that much better, prompting analysts to dub this election the battle between the aforementioned “war criminals” and the “common criminals.” Leaders of more than half the other parties are suspected of corruption.
So who will win? “This time, fortunately, I am sure that [the war criminals] will not win at the polls,” says Miroslav Prokopijevic, president of Belgrade’s Free Market Center. The polls agree so far. But in recent months Serbia’s wartime elite has been gaining popularity. The fact is, in dire economic –times, Serbs have begun to frown on corruption more than they do on battlefield atrocities, thanks largely to tales of the excesses of corrupt elected officials exposed daily by the media. Some Serbs even yearn for a return to the days of strongman Slobo. Given that few of his henchmen have ever been put on trial, and that little accountability among officials has yet to emerge in Serbia, some argue that the country never moved on in the first place. “If we had a transition by now, new jobs would be created and people would see that this country has a future,” says Prokopijevic. Sadly, as these elections show, the only future Serbia seems to have right now is its past.
Science
Gas Maker
Before last week, gas hydrate’s claim to fame was that it was highly mysterious–and highly flammable. But after meeting last week to discuss a drilling project conducted in a hydrate-rich area of northern Canada, scientists announced that they can now produce natural gas from hydrate.
So what is this mystery substance? Hydrate is formed when gas is trapped in a lattice structure of frozen water molecules. The scientists were able to release controlled volumes of methane by carefully reducing the pressure and temperature in the deposit, separating the gas and water. Buried beneath marine and permafrost areas of the globe are massive deposits of hydrate. If one could tap even a fraction, resource-poor countries like Japan could become energy self-sufficient and the world would have another clean-burning fuel. While the story of hydrate has hinged on a giant “if,” the substance is now officially a viable source for natural gas.
Of course, there are still ifs. For one, experts argue that other global hydrate deposits might not be as easily exploited as the site in northern Canada. But even though it won’t be powering gas ranges any time soon, says David Victor, director of Stanford University’s Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, hydrate’s importance as a source of gas has suddenly become a very real possibility. And that’s a whole lot better than that big if.
EDITOR’S NOTE:
Photographer James Nachtwey, whose work is discussed in a review of the book “War” in some editions of the magazine, was injured by shrapnel while on assignment in Iraq last week. The story went to press before the incident.
Christmas
A Survey For Santa
Regardless of religion, few things put Americans in a good mood like Christmas. And most usually start thinking about it right after Thanksgiving in November. A collection of some recent holiday-minded surveys shows just how holiday-minded Americans are: 91 percent of children up to the age of 6 believe in Santa; 67 percent will leave him a glass of milk on Christmas Eve, while 36 percent will leave something “slightly stronger” (NOP World). He may not be the only one who needs that extra boost: 66 percent of singles say they’ve stayed in doomed relationships because they didn’t want midholiday breakups; 3 percent said it was because they wanted the extra present (Match.com).
Speaking of presents–when to shop? 35 percent of Americans started their shopping last month; 6 percent were completely finisB as of Nov. 12 (National Retail Federation). But the big question is what to buy. Two surveys we don’t believe: 41 percent of adults would be happy to receive a horse (American Quarter Horse Association); 53 percent would just be happy to get world peace (AvantGo).
Movies
Holiday Head-to-Head
South Korea’s film industry has a gift for Hollywood this Christmas: a little competition. Tired of being run out of town by American movies during the holidays, studio execs in Seoul have scheduled the two biggest films in the country’s history to open this season. Director Kang Woo-suk serves up “Silmido,” based on the true story of a team of South Korean agents trained to assassinate North Korea’s Kim Il Sung. (The training backfired. In 1971, the team tried to kill South Korea’s president instead.) And director Kang Je-gyu premieres “Taegukgi,” which chronicles two brothers fighting on opposing sides during the Korean War.
Although the budgets are modest by, say, Jerry Bruckheimer standards–“Silmido” cost $10 million and “Taegukgi” $15 million–they’re a giant leap in an industry where the average budget is about $3 million. The studios are confident that these movies will hold their own, even when stacked against films like the $100 million “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” In fact, seven of the 10 biggest box-office successes in Korea have been made locally. And the two new films boast a cast of regional all-stars, which will help boost distribution across Asia. Add to that huge advertising campaigns, and Korea looks as if it may produce two international winners this winter–even if the story lines do appeal more to the peninsula than the rest of Middle-earth.
Books
From Russia With Love?… Well, Not Exactly.
On a snowy winter’s day in December 1998, Vladimir Putin sat in a fancy Japanese restaurant in Moscow opposite a young female journalist. She had caught his eye; he had invited her out for sushi. A year before he took over as Russian president, Putin headed the successor to the feared KGB. “Lenochka, why do you keep on talking about politics and only politics? Wouldn’t you rather have a drink?” he asked. But the 25-year-old refused his offer of sake, and deftly evaded his question about where she planned to spend New Year’s Eve. So goes the story in Yelena Tregubova’s new book, “Tales of a Kremlin Digger.”
Putin has never liked press criticism, and Tregubova’s book is full of fodder for his fury. The journalist describes several embarrassing episodes. Visiting a hospital in a Russian provincial city, a stern-faced Putin spoke to a boy who had been injured while jaywalking. “Now you’ll know not to break traffic rules anymore,” said the president. In the same ward, a small girl burst into tears when Putin tried to kiss her and said she was afraid of him. Kremlin minders warned journalists they would be stripped of their accreditation if they wrote about the scene. Tregubova’s critical articles regularly provoked phone calls to her editor from the Kremlin, an old Soviet custom that has become widespread again. “I felt under constant psychological pressure; I was warned I would find myself out of work,” she says. And after she wrote this book, that’s exactly what happened.
Q&A: Michael Stipe
Releasing a greatest-hits CD can signal the end is near. But R.E.M. has a new album due in 2004 and two new tracks on “In Time,” a best-of reaching back to 1988’s “Green.” NEWSWEEK’s Bret Begun spoke with R.E.M.’s Michael Stipe about the band’s past, present and future:
Why a greatest-hits album?
For me, this marks the end of one chapter. Our confidence level as a trio–our drummer [Bill Berry] retired–has now reached the highest points that we had as a four-piece. I wanted to stake our claim.
So you’re thinking more consciously about your legacy now.
I’m too much in the moment to look back. That’s been endemic–I think that’s the right word. Is that a good word?
I like it.
I’m not even sure what it means. [Pause] That’s endemic of the way we work: not to become formulaic and not to suck. And, if we start sucking, to be the first ones to realize that. There’s not an album that we put out that I think doesn’t have something good to say about it.
I don’t mean this as a joke, but wasn’t “Imitation of Life” [from 2001’s “Reveal”] huge in Japan?
It was our first-ever No. 1 single. None of us have ever figured out what a hit single is. It’s not something that’s important to us. We just write the stuff, then go, “That could maybe be on the radio.” I’m asked all the time to explain why I do what I do, where it comes from, what inspires me. It sounds stupid to say, but I have no idea.
