More than two-thirds of Americans (69 percent) now say they would support the use of military force against Iraq (26 percent do not, and 7 percent aren’t sure). That’s an increase of five percent from late August (though still down from 81 percent in a poll taken a month after last year’s terrorist attacks). Bush’s overall approval rating got a boost this week as well, jumping to 70 percent from 61 percent in late August. The increase is the first in six months, though his rating is 18 percent lower than its October high.
Still, 31 percent of Americans say Bush hasn’t done a good job of explaining U.S. policy on Iraq. And less than half (49 percent) of those polled by NEWSWEEK say the administration has a well-thought-out plan for using military force against Iraq; about one-third (34 percent) say it does not.
Nonetheless, 69 percent of those polled believe that military action against Iraq would be successful in making Saddam Hussein less of a threat to the rest of the world long-term. And 55 percent say that if Saddam is successfully removed from power and a new government is established, it would help spread democracy in the Middle East (34 percent say it would not).
A majority of respondents also acknowledge, however, that the short-term consequences of attacking Iraq could be serious, with 76 percent predicting that action against Iraq would provoke terrorist acts against Americans. Seventy-two percent fear that Iraq would retaliate by using biological or chemical weapons against Israel and nearly as many (69 percent) say Iraq would use those weapons against the United States. At the least, 70 percent say an attack on Iraq would cause serious problems for the United States throughout the Arab world.
Most believe that not taking action against Saddam could have dire consequences as well. Eighty-five percent say that if the United States does not act, Saddam will be play an instrumental role in helping Al Qaeda terrorists carry out future attacks against U.S. targets, and three-quarters of those polled say Iraq would eventually use weapons of mass destruction against a neighboring country.
Public opinion is split over when the United States should take military action. Nearly half (48 percent) say it would be better to wait to try and drum up more support from allies, even if it gives Saddam more time to prepare for an attack. Forty-four percent say it is important to take military action during the next month or so-even without the consent of allies. However, 60 percent believe that Bush should get approval from Congress before taking action.
Fifty-seven percent say it’s very important that Bush also get support from most of America’s European allies, while 48 percent say it is also very important to get support from most of the Arab countries that have friendly relations with the United States. And 55 percent say it’s very important that Bush get formal support from the United Nations before taking any military action.
If the United States does use military force against Iraq, most of those polled (76 percent) would prefer to send in commandos or Special Forces to capture Saddam or to work with local anti-Saddam forces. Three-quarters would support organizing an international force to remove Saddam from power and take control of Iraq. Seventy percent would support the use of air strikes alone, while just 55 percent would support sending in large numbers of U.S. ground troops.
Ninety percent of Americans expect Iraqi casualties would number at least in the hundreds, with 64 percent saying it would be very likely that hundreds of Iraqi civilians would be killed or injured. Eighty percent put the number even higher-with 55 percent saying it would be very likely (25 percent say somewhat likely) that thousands of Iraqis would be killed or injured. Seventy-eight percent also say it’s somewhat (41 percent) or very likely (37 percent) that many U.S. pilots or other military personnel would be killed or taken prisoner.
Two-thirds of those polled predict a successful campaign against Iraq would lead to a long-term commitment of U.S. military forces in Iraq. Thirty-five percent of Americans say they would support a U.S. military commitment of several years, 22 percent would support a year-long commitment, while 13 percent favor maintaining troops in Iraq for less than a year.
For the Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed by telephone 1,000 adults aged 18 and older on Sept. 12 and Sept. 13. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
