It would be a mistake to read too much into this. Polls are just political beauty contests. But clearly it’s a milestone on Chirac’s road to the title of Mr. Un-America.
In the months since the Iraq crisis began, France has positioned itself shrewdly, not so much as the enemy of the United States, but as the forthright alternative to the Bush administration’s with-us-or-against-us view of the world. Righteous crusades against evil, the French warned, can have evil consequences of their own. Even the best-intentioned occupiers of foreign lands will find themselves reviled by people anxious to control their own destinies.
How Gaulling, for the Americans, that the French could be proved right. When Paris tried to slow or stop America’s rush to invade Iraq–arguing that there were better ways than war to find Baghdad’s supposed weapons of mass destruction–it was denounced by Americans as petty, perverse and obstructionist. Nine months later the French position looks prudent, even prescient.
Today France is at it again. Playing to the court of world opinion, and popular sentiment in Iraq, it demands a U.S. handover of Iraqi sovereignty as soon as possible. French motives might be self-serving (mais non!), but the advice could still be solid. The United States argues, however, that a quick turnover to a weak council will only ensure more chaos. The problem is that neither the United States nor the French seem able to make the concessions necessary to meld their two visions into a workable policy.
Last week’s diplomacy wasn’t reassuring. Addressing the United Nations, Bush spoke of “self-government for the people of Iraq” (not “sovereignty”) and declared that peace and stability could best be reached by “an orderly and democratic process… neither hurried nor delayed by other parties.” But if order and democracy are prerequisites for independence, that looks far away.
As the French see it, the Americans are riding the proverbial tiger, afraid to dismount. The longer the United States tries to hold on, the more humiliated–and angry–many Iraqis will feel. “In a proud region, the Iraqis stand out,” says a member of the American team that helped organize the Governing Council of 25 Iraqis. “Even the ones close to us are incredibly uncomfortable with being occupied. The more time goes by, the less support we’ll have.”
Late last week, in an attempt to win more international support before a crucial donor’s conference in late October, Secretary of State Colin Powell announced a loose deadline of one year for Iraqis to write a constitution and hold elections. Bush also promised a bigger role for the United Nations. But Chirac is sticking to his more radical solution. Returning sovereignty to the Iraqi people right away would end (at least juridically) the humiliating U.S.-British occupation. Violence would then subside, as the French see it, and international support would grow. The United Nations and the United States could get on with rebuilding Iraq’s administrative, security and financial institutions “according to a realistic calendar,” Chirac said.
There may be a compromise lurking here. French officials accept that America would command a U.N.-mandated security force. They also say they’re ready to recognize the current Governing Council–handpicked by the Americans–as the sovereign government of Iraq. “We ought to take that and run with it,” says a veteran of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. But after a 45-minute meeting between Chirac and Bush, both leaders were unmoved. Thus it’s on to round two at the United Nations this week–and, doubtless, more Franco-American finger-pointing.
