The real question is what the charges against him will be. Last week Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic met U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in Washington and appeared to open the way to a deal between Yugoslavia and the International War Crimes Tribunal, which indicted Milosevic for crimes against humanity during the Kosovo war. Svilanovic said it was possible “to prosecute all indicted personalities in cooperation with the tribunal.” But he left unclear whether Milosevic would be extradited to The Hague or face a domestic trial under international supervision.
Extradition may be difficult. The international tribunal remains deeply unpopular among most Serbs, including Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica, who has often criticized it as a kangaroo court. But Kostunica and other DOS leaders also recognize that their success depends on foreign aid to their economically devastated country. In October the U.S. Senate refused to lift economic sanctions permanently or approve a steady flow of aid money unless Serbia cooperates with prosecutors in The Hague and extradites indicted war criminals. It set a deadline of March 31 for the new U.S. president to certify Serbia’s good faith. Kostunica’s allies are hoping for a compromise that will allow Serb judges to determine Milosevic’s guilt. Newly independent Serb prosecutors will likely consider a raft of new charges–including involvement in the April 1999 execution-style murder of newspaper editor Slavko Curuvija.
But the government could seek to put Milosevic away quickly for a more mundane transgression–fraud. In 1999 he allegedly made false statements on government documents to secure property on Belgrade’s most expensive street, a crime punishable by as many as three years in prison. This strategy–dubbed by some Serbs the “Al Capone scenario”–could appease growing rage in Serbia against the former tyrant. But satisfying the world’s demands for justice could prove far more difficult.
