Weymouth: You were critical of the latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. Barak: We have a somewhat different interpretation of the same facts. Our interpretation is that clearly the Iranians are aiming at nuclear capability. It’s probably true that for some reason they may have slowed down the weapons group in 2003 because it was the height of American militarism.

The CIA thinks they shut down the covert program then. We think that they are quite advanced, much beyond the level of the Manhattan Project. We suspect they are probably already working on warheads for ground-to-ground missiles which are much more sophisticated than those carried by the Enola Gay [the airplane that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima]. They are clearly developing missiles, and there is no reason to develop missiles that can fly 1,500 miles if you just want to … it’s usually for unconventional warheads.

Do you have intelligence to prove that? We don’t know if they have enough enriched uranium. Probably they cannot build it, but they are working on the technology for warheads. The only challenge is to have enough weapons-grade enriched uranium or plutonium, which they probably don’t have, but they are working on this as well. We suspect that probably they have another clandestine enrichment operation beyond the one in Natanz.

What kind? We don’t know enough, but there is no other way to interpret what we see. The dots that we see on the screen cannot be easily connected in a way that does not lead to a nuclear program. We think it is still a major challenge for the world. The leading intelligence communities should concentrate on finding whether there is or is not a clandestine enrichment operation and a weap- ons group working on the weapons technology. There is a lot to do on sanctions. I talked yesterday with President Sarkozy and got the impression that the French are working seriously to convince both China and Russia to keep moving forward on sanctions.

Sarkozy is interested in pushing sanctions on Iran? The French are very clear about the risk from a nuclear Iran. There is a lot to do without removing any option from the table.

Do you think the Americans will fail to take action as a result of the National Intelligence Estimate? Clearly the NIE reduced the enthusiasm even for tougher sanctions.

Is it possible that Israel has the ability to conduct a military raid on Iran alone? I think the less we talk, the better off we are.

Do you think that the Syrian track should be pursued, that the peace process should be started up with President Assad? I think that we have shown … a respect for Syria, its interests and its leaders. We expect them to do the same regarding Israel. If this basic kind of element will be there, I think a Syrian track is clearly conceivable and potentially positive.

I thought the U.S. has been opposed to Israel negotiating with Syria. I think they realized in recent years that we understand the Syrian issue better.

Prime Minister Olmert and President Bush are now trying to do what you tried to do with Clinton during his last year in office. Do you think it’s possible to achieve an agreement while President Bush is still in office? When I dealt with it, there was Yasir Arafat, who we doubted whether he was willing but there was no doubt that he was able. Here we have two [Palestinian leaders]—Abu Mazen [President Mahmoud Abbas] and [Prime Minister Salam] Fayyad: they are both willing and ready, but there is a great question mark as to whether they are able [to deliver]. They control only half of their people.

So the Palestinian leadership must control both territories, not just the West Bank? We are not going to give up our operational freedom for antiterror activity in the West Bank as long as there is a threat of terror.

Did you expect that once Israel had left Gaza [in 2005], there would be no violence from Gaza aimed at Israel? Most Israelis expected that once Israel was out of Gaza, there would be no violence aimed at Israel and they would concentrate on building their own economy and their own lives. But Hamas took over and things became worse. There has been continued shelling of our cities, especially a city called Siderot. There is indiscriminate shelling of civilians. No sovereign government would accept this without responding.