In their haste to obsess over every detail and every implication of last night’s largely inconsequential Oregon and Kentucky primaries, the cable-news chatterati forgot the cardinal rule of political journalism: follow the money.
As the returns were still rolling in, the campaigns of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain quietly filed their April financial reports with the FEC–and the stats told a more interesting story than whatever was happening in Beaver and Bluegrass country. For starters, Clinton is beyond broke. During what some guy named Eliot called the cruelest month, Clinton spent nearly $8 million more ($28.9 million) than she raised ($21 million); even if you factor in the $5 million she loaned herself, she’s still nearly $3 million shy of solvency. Of course, there’s also her crushing debt to contend with–$19.5 million in all, or nearly triple the amount ($7 million) Clinton has on hand for the remaining primaries. It’s no wonder the New York senator started her speech last night with an advertisement for hillaryclinton.com. Still, there are signs that even her supporters’ generosity is subsiding. After boasting of a $10 million post-Pennsylvania haul–when Clinton’s odds of clinching the nomination were at a peak–the campaign would only peg the May 6 and May 13 tallies as “in the seven digits.” With only three contests remaining and Obama’s grip on the crown getting tighter every day, Clinton won’t be able to raise the kind of cash needed to run a full-force presidential campaign for much longer.
Obama, on the other hand, is still raking it in. Despite having his worst month ever–think Rev. Wright (take two), Bittergate and Pennsylvania–the Democratic frontrunner still managed to raise nearly $32 million in April. Sure, that’s only slightly more than he spent. But thanks to surpluses from earlier months, the Illinois senator still has $37 million–or $30 million more than Clinton–to drop on the last three primaries. Asymmetric warfare, indeed.
Luckily for Clinton, Obama is focusing on laying the groundwork for his general-election campaign–which is where John McCain comes in. The Arizona senator trailed his likely Democratic rival by a wide margin, but still managed to raise a respectable $18.5 million–his best month to date. And despite a flurry of news stories today commenting on the sizable gap between the candidates’ bank accounts, McCain is actually leading Obama if you include their respective parties in the mix: according to the Politico’s Mike Allen, the Republicans [McCain + RNC] started May with a war chest of more than $62 million ($40 + $22), while the Democrats [Obama + DNC] started with about $20 million less ($37 + $4.5). McCain’s problem? The advantage won’t last long. While Obama has raised a total of $272 million from 1.5 million individual donors (who, with an average contribution of about $100, are nowhere near maxing out), most of McCain’s money comes from a far smaller number of big-time Republicans each contributing the $2,300 maximum. In the fall, McCain plans to take public funds, which will limit his personal spending to $85 million, and steer the rest of his would-be benefactors to the RNC. But there are only so many fat-cats to tap. Once Democratic loyalists who supported Clinton in the primary start ponying up for Obama and flooding the DNC, McCain’s going to be painfully outgunned.
